South Korea’s Missile Deterrence Strategy after Moon Jae-in Administration’s Missile Guideline Amendment (2019.03)

• Authors : Jiil Kim
• Journal : Strategic Studies
• Publisher : Korea Research Institute for Strategy
• Volume : 26(1)
• Publication Date : March, 2019
• Abstract : Since taking office, Moon Jae In’s administration has swiftly moved to amend the New Missile Guideline (NMG) between South Korea and the United States. In the past, missile agreements between the two states have been marked with considerable conflicts caused by difference in opinions. However, it took just six months of consultations regarding the NMG to reach a point of consensus. Why did the two allies conclude the NMG deal without difficulties unlike the past negotiations? The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamics of the ROK-US alliance by looking at past cases of missile agreements. Using a case study method it reveals that ‘policy tradeoff’ played a role in the amendment of the NMG. In addition, the agreement was facilitated by the fact that North Korea’s nuclear missiles reached a stage of development which makes them capable of threatening the US mainland.