연구논문
평판에 대한 고려가 분쟁시 위기결정에 미치는 영향: 1950년대 제1-2차 양안분쟁을 중심으로 (2021.09)
- 저자 : 박동준
- 학술지명 : 국제정치연구
- 발행처 : 동아시아국제정치학회
- 권호 : 24(3)
- 게재년월 : 2021년 09월
초록 :
효율적인 억제 등을 위해 강한 국가 평판을 형성하는 것이 국가 안보와 국익 추구에 유용함에도 불구하고, 왜 국가들은 때로 분쟁 상황에서 물러나는 결정을 하기도 하는가? 본 논문은 이와 같은 질문에 대한 답을 제시하고자 특정 조건 하에서는 국가나 지도자들이 강한 평판대신 온건한 평판의 형성이 유리하다고 판단하며, 이에 따라 분쟁 상황에서 의도적으로 물러나기로 결정한다고 주장한다. 구체적으로, 비용이 증가함에 따라 억제 전략의 장기적인 효용에 대해 의심이 생기는 경우, 그리고 협상 타결보다는 협상 과정을 우선하는 경우 등 두 가지조건이 충족될 때 국제정치 행위자들은 온건한 평판을 추구할 가능성이 높다. 본 논문은 1950 년대에 두 차례 발생한 양안분쟁 당시 미국 아이젠하워 행정부의 위겨결정과정을 비교분석하여 특히 제2차 양안분쟁 당시 미국이 왜 물러나기로 결정하였는지 설명함으로써 핵심 주장을검증한다.
Why do states sometimes back down during crises despite the risk of harming their reputation for resolve, a key political asset considered vital to successful deterrence? To address this question, this article argues that under specific conditions, states and leaders consider a moderate, rather than a strong reputation, more suited to its foreign policy objectives and national security and thus opt to deliberately back down accordingly. In particular, actors are likely to prefer a moderate reputation when there is increasing concern about the increasing costs of deterrence caused by escalation across crises, and when they prioritize the process of negotiations over its eventual outcome and seek to induce the participation of their adversary. Case studies of the two Taiwan Strait crises of the 1950s, with particular focus on why the Eisenhower administration chose to back down during the second crisis in 1958, confirms the main argument of this article.
Multilateralism in the Era of Sino-US Strategic Competition: Balancing the Security-Maximization and Norm-Spreading Function of Alliances (2021.09)
- 저자 : 박동준
- 학술지명 : 아세아연구
- 발행처 : 고려대학교 아세아문제연구원
- 권호 : 64(3)
- 게재년월 : 2021년 09월
초록 : How has US grand strategy and America’s attitude towards alliances and multilateralism evolved in the post-Cold War era? This article proposes a framework based on the two primary functions of US alliances to analyze its foreign policy. I argue that while the grand strategy of deep engagement has been pervasive in American foreign policy, differences emerge when examining whether each US administration prioritized either the security-maximizing or norm-spreading function of alliances. With the exception of President Clinton, all other US Presidents focused on the former which, in turn, has led to a more consistent foreign policy than conventionally understood. Meanwhile, a recent trend observed in both the Obama and Trump administrations has been America’s desire to share the burden of maintaining the liberal international order (LIO) with others. Combined, America’s approach to alliances and multilaralism has transitioned from being supply-driven to demand-driven in an attempt to induce institutional buy-in from allies favoring the current international system. The recent success of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) provides further evidence for these claims. Such a shift in US views on multilateralism will present both challenges and opportunities for South Korea as it navigates the emerging New Cold War in the Asia-Pacific.