Origins of U.S. Constraints on South Korea’s Nuclear Latency: Alliance Marginality During the Cold War and the Making of Nuclear Restrictions (2026.06)
- 저자 : 임상수
- 학술지명 : The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis
- 발행처 : 한국국방연구원
- 권호 : Vol.38, No.2
- 게재년월 : 2026년 6월
초록: The United States imposed stringent restrictions on South Korea’s nuclear latency during the Cold War, most notably through the 1974 ROK–U.S. Nuclear Cooperation Agreement and the 1979 ROK–U.S. Ballistic Missile Range Guidelines. What explains Washington’s motivation for placing such tight constraints on its ally? Employing the process-tracing method based on extensive archival research, including declassified U.S. documents and a broad body of primary and secondary sources, this paper argues that these restrictions were largely rooted in South Korea’s strategic value to the United States, which was not insignificant but remained limited during the period. Because this level of strategic value was not sufficient to warrant robust American security commitment that would have fully reassured South Korea, the country became increasingly concerned about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, which in turn led South Korea to explore independent nuclear options. Fearing this trajectory, Washington imposed stringent constraints to forestall such an outcome, thus laying the foundations for restrictions that remain to this day. The findings suggest that U.S. constraints on South Korea’s nuclear latency are not fixed but depend on changing strategic conditions, and that such restrictions may be relaxed in part through Seoul’s policy choices and diplomatic efforts.