home 연구성과 연구논문

연구논문

Multilateralism in Great Power Politics: Building Order or Inviting Conflict? (2022.09)

초록 : Though the United States and China emphasize the significance of multilateral frameworks, they have not departed from power politics. As the confrontation between U.S.-led and Chinese-style multilateralism intensifies, the practice of multilateral cooperation based on openness and responsibility is losing ground. In this context, this paper compares U.S.-led multilateralism and Chinese-style multilateralism to examine U.S.–China rivalry in multilateral mechanisms. It then zooms in on the rivalry in the context of the Indo–Pacific region. U.S. President Biden’s key strategy in his China policy is represented by the catchphrase “cooperate, compete, confront,” dubbed the “3C framework,” reflecting the complexities of U.S.–China relations. While the two states tend to show a mix of competition and cooperation relative to global multilateral mechanisms, they exhibit a mix of competition and conflict in the Indo–Pacific. The paper analyzes recent United States and Chinese approaches towards topical multilateral issues: on climate change issues for the former and on cybersecurity and advanced technology for the latter.

원문링크

Experience, Communication, and Collective Action: Financial Autonomy and Capital Market Development in East Asia (2022.09)

  • 저자 : Boram Lee and Yong Wook Lee
  • 학술지명 : New Political Economy
  • 발행처 : Routledge
  • 권호 : 27(5)
  • 게재년월 : 2022년 09월

초록: From the creation of the eurozone to the African Financial Markets Initiative, the world has seen the emergence of regional financial institutions in recent decades. East Asia is no exception. ASEAN plus Three (China, Japan, and Korea) has institutionalised the Asian Bond Marked Initiative (ABMI) since 2003. What explains the development of the ABMI? We argue that East Asian states established it as an institutional mechanism for regional financial autonomy constrained by their dependence on Western financial market. In making this argument, we propose an experience-communication analytical framework to systematically investigate the formation of collective economic interests. We show that the analytical framework captures the timing and the content of the institutional evolution of the ABMI with greater precision. To demonstrate our claim, we attempt to make best use of both qualitative process tracing and quantitative collocational analysis for the validity and reliability of our claim. Particular attention is paid to analysing the politics of inclusion and exclusion in membership as ASEAN plus Three states shifted the forum for regional bond market cooperation from the APEC, of which the United States is a member, to the ABMI, which excludes the United States in pursuing regional financial autonomy.

원문링크

한국인은 왜 재분배 정책을 지지하지 않는가? 설문실험 연구 (2022.09)

초록: 한국인은 왜 재분배 정책을 지지하지 않는가? 이 연구는 한국에서 불평등이 심화되고, 소득과 자 산불평등이 커다란 정치적, 사회적 이슈지만, 시민의 재분배 선호는 그리 높지 않다는 경험적 퍼즐 을 설명하려는 시도이다. 이 논문은 주관적 소득계층인식과 객관적 소득계층의 불일치에 초점을 둔 다. 이 연구는 소득 위치에 대한 불완전한 정보(imperfect information)가 경제적 이익에 반하는 재 분배 정책 선호로 나타난다는 주장을 제시하고, 설문실험 분석을 통해 경험적 증거를 제시한다. 설 문실험에 대한 분석 결과, 대다수 사람들이 스스로를 중간소득계층에 가깝게 오인하고 있었다. 본인 의 객관적 소득 위치에 대한 정보를 제공받은 처치집단의 경우 재분배 선호가 소득에 따른 경제적 이해관계에 부합하게 나타난 반면에, 사회 전체의 불평등 수준에 대한 정보를 제공받은 처치집단의 경우에는 정보처치 효과가 발견되지 않았다. 분석 결과는 세후소득극대화를 추구하는 경제적 합리성 이론에 부합하는 결과로, 한국인의 재분배 선호가 낮게 나타나는 이유는 자신의 정확한 소득위치에 대한 오인 때문이고, 따라서 정확한 정보가 제공되고 주어진 조세정책과 재분배 정책 작동기제에대한 이해를 갖춘다면, 소득에 따라 재분배 선호가 형성될 가능성이 높다는 점을 시사한다.

원문링크

Economic MAD as Middle Powers’ Strategic Tool in the Great Power Rivalry (2022.08)

초록 : The Cold War theory of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which described the reciprocal damage resulting from the use of nuclear weapons, can be expanded in the 21st century to include more dimensions including climate and the economy. The economic dimension of MAD (dubbed as EMAD) is a situation where one country is incapable of disrupting trade with a target country without also causing itself significant economic d[amage. This can occur given the presence of a specific economic advantage on which the coercing power relies. How can the presence of EMAD help afford middle powers more leeway in their alignment decisions within this strategic dilemma? What economic advantages create a stronger situation of EMAD? In line with these inquiries, this article investigates three cases, each with differing degrees of economic MAD: the 2016 Korea-China dispute over THAAD deployment; the 2020 Australia-China dispute over Covid-19; and the 2022 case of Korea’s participation in IPEF. After all, middle powers need to develop a ‘collective security-type arrangement’ where China’s wielding of economic muscle against any middle power state is considered an aggression against all other middle powers, which act together or collectively assist the target state to make the most of EMAD vis-à-vis China. For this, it is reasonable and realistic to promote the democratic liberal international order (LIO) by aligning with U.S.-led minilateral and multilateral initiatives or mechanisms. Yet, it is also important to identify areas and ways to engage with China rather than alienating or excluding it on the international stage.

원문링크

Proximity and Political Science: How Distance was Overcome (Partially) by COVID-19 (2022.07)

  • 저자 : Erik Gartzke, Benjamin E Goldsmith, Koji Kagotani, Soo Yeon Kim, Jeehye Kim, Jiyoung Ko
  • 학술지명 : Political Science & Politics
  • 발행처 : Cambridge University Press
  • 권호 : 55(3)
  • 게재년월 : 2022년 07월

초록 : A key enemy of understanding is isolation. Distance makes it more difficult to craft scholarly insights, to obtain feedback, and to share ideas with other scholars. Because of this, tight-knit communities have long demonstrated advantages in research and learning. In the current globalized world, distance remains a problem for scholars of the Asia–Pacific region. In contrast to Europe and the Americas—regions characterized by continents—the Pacific is an ocean with a diverse set of nations, most of which exist separated from one another, on the rim. This physical geography complicates attempts to study and to communicate insights about regional affairs. Arguably, our understanding of the region is hampered by one of its most important attributes: the physical separation of its component nations.

원문링크

동아시아론의 변용(變容)과 지적 계보의 재조명: 학제간 논쟁의 유형과 궤적 분석 (2022.06)

초록: 본 논문에서는 한국학계의 우세담론의 위상을 누렸던 ｢동아시아론｣의 지적 계보를 재조명하고자 한다. 동아시아론은 학문적 범주를 설정하지 못한 채 다양한 담론적 변용을 낳게 되었다.
근현대 이전에 동아시아는 타자를 상정하는 ‘우리’라는 의식을 공유한 적이 없이 초국가적 국가주의의 성향을 보여 왔다. 본 연구에서는 동아시아론의 지적 궤적을 살피기 위해 논쟁의 유형을 네 가지로 대별하여 그 성격을 성찰하였다. 그 중에서 기존 동아시아론과 연계하여, 서구국제사회론의 비판적 성찰을 통해 ‘동아시아 국제사회론’의 시각에 주목하고자 한다. 동아시아의 균열적 한계에도 불구하고, ‘상상의 공동체’로서의 ‘동아시아 국제사회’를 지향하려는 에피스테메의 재현은 동아시아론의 실제(실천성)를 심화시키는데 보완적 기능을 할 것으로 본다.

원문링크

The Diplomatic and Military Relations between Korean Provisional Government and the United States: Mutual Perception of the Eagle Project (2022.06)

초록: This paper aims to examine the Eagle Project by analyzing the phase of forging mutual trust between the Korean Provisional Government (hereafter the KPG)’s army, the Korean Independence Army (韓國光復軍, KIA) and the Office of Strategic Services related to the project. Furthermore, this paper concludes that the Eagle Project was neither a trivial preparation nor an unfortunate process on both sides of the Korean and American memories. However, the plan involves what factors would contribute to the formation and transformation of the alliance. During the Pacific War, it was demonstrated that the relationship between the Kuomintang government and the KPG became a major factor in the KPG & KIA’s readiness to cooperate with the United States. To them, building rapport with the United States was connected to enhancing their military autonomy. This conviction was largely based on the KPG & KIA’s great confidence in the United States and based on their preference for liberal democracy. The influence of the tense situation in the Pacific region made the OSS, the KPG and KIA to recognize the need for their role in developing cooperation between the United States and Korea.

원문링크

다양성(diversity)의 정치적 기반: 다양성의 수단적 가치 및 정책에 대한 태도 결정요인 (2022.06)

초록 : 본 논문은 다양성의 내재적 가치 및 수단적 가치에 대한 한국인의 인식을 분석하였다. 소극적 의미에서 차이에 기반한 차별 및 편견을 금지하고자 하는 다양성 담론의 내재적 가치와 적극적으로 다양성을 확대하는 것이 모두에게 이익이라는 수단적 가치에 대하여 한국인이 어떠한 태도를 보이는지를 분석하였다. 분석의 주된 결과는 다양성의 내재적, 수단적 가치에 대한 세대균열이 존재한다는 점이다. 다양성 담론 및 정책에 대하여 청년세대의 인식이 다른 세대에 비해 부정적인 것으로 분석되었다. 일반적으로 차별을 반대하지만, 적극적인 다양성 확대 정책인 소수자에 대한 우대정책은 지지하지 않고, 이러한 우대정책을 추구하는 정당을 지지하지 않을 확률이 높다고 나타났다. 최근 학교, 기업, 시민사회, 정부 등 한국 사회의 여러 단층에서 조직의 다양성(diversity) 및 다양성 가치가 강조되고 있다. 조직의 다양성이 그 집단의 혁신과 성과에 긍정적인 기여를 한다는 가설은 많은 연구에서 확인되고 있지만, 본 연구는 우리의 일상에서 다양성의 가치를 실행하는 것은 사회구성원의 능력주의에 기반한 인식으로 인한 어려움이 있음을 시사한다. 2022년 현재 한국 사회에서는 소위 차별금지법’에 대한 정치적 논쟁이 진행 중이지만, 한국사회의 주축이 될 청년세대가 가지고 있는 다양성의 수단적 가치에 대한 부정적 인식 및 태도로 인하여 차별금지법의 실효성을 담보할 수 있는 다양성의 수단적 가치에 대한 정치적 기반은 지속해서 축소될 것으로 예측된다.

원문링크

A Janus–Faced Security Landscape: An Analysis of the East Asian Security Environment (2022.06)

초록: East Asia has become more salient on the international stage, economically and strategically. Considering its significance, many scholars have paid attention to the regional security environment. They consider East Asia a peaceful region because there has been no inter–state war, and attempt to explore factors preventing wars in East Asia. We believe that the focus on the absence of war would not only fail to provide a whole picture of the current East Asian security condition but also give a false impression that this region is stable and secure. Accordingly, we attempt to provide a detailed descriptive look at the current security environment of East Asia by focusing on various aspects of the security environment. We show that East Asia suffers from intense tensions, while it has avoided serious interstate conflict. By drawing on various perspectives, we attempt to explain the seemingly contradictory phenomenon in this region, a co-existence of intense hostility and negative peace. The U.S.–China competition, territorial disputes, and the ineffectiveness of regional institutions have intensified intra–regional tension, undermining potentials for developing security cooperation. Nevertheless, the security role of the United States and a high level of intra–regional economic integration have prevented the occurrence of serious militarized conflict.

원문링크

East Asia’s strategic positioning toward China: identifying and accounting for intra-regional variations (2022.06)

  • 저자 : Jae Ho Chung and Hun Joon Kim
  • 학술지명 : Australian Journal of International Affairs
  • 발행처 : Routledge
  • 권호 : Online first
  • 게재년월 : 2022년 06월

초록: Relatively few systematic and categorical studies have been conducted on the variant responses by East Asian states to the rise of China, and even fewer dealt with reasons for such intra-regional variations. This study seeks to fill the void by examining the strategic responses by 15 East Asian states for the period of 2011–2016. This period merits close scrutiny because China became more explicitly assertive. The research proceeds in two phases. First, by way of reading into the expert assessments in academic journals, the strategic responses of the 15 states are categorised into balancing, hedging, or bandwagoning. Second, statistical analyses are conducted to see how the intra-regional variations are related to unit-level factors. Of the seven variables analyzed, three – geographical proximity, democracy, and identity – turn out to be crucial in determining the East Asian states’ strategic responses.

원문링크