Europe Divided: How Different Threat Perception Towards Russia Inhibits Military Integration In Europe (2022.12)

  • 저자 :  임상수
  • 학술지명 : 사회과학연구
  • 발행처 :경희대학교 사회과학연구
  • 권호 : 48(3)
  • 게재년월 : 2022년 12월

초록: Military integration has been the source of debate in Europe ever since the end of World War II, the debate intensifying due to increasing Russian threat since 2010s. However, despite increasing voice for the need to integrate militarily, there has been very little actual progress in military integration in Europe. What factors
are behind such stagnant state of European military integration? This paper argues that Stephen Walt’s balance of threat theory can contribute to explaining the puzzling phenomenon. Applying the theory to the European case, this paper shows that the Eastern and Western Europeans are likely to have different degree of threat perception towards Russia. Such difference is largely caused by two factors: 1) difference in national aggregate power, 2) different geographical proximity to the Russian threat. As a result, more highly threatened Eastern Europeans tend to distrust European military integration and prefer NATO as more certain way of balancing the Russian threat. The findings imply that it is unlikely for large-scale European military integration to take place in the near future.