When Leaders Expect Too Much:The Ups and Downs of Sino-ROK Relations During 2013-2016 (2023.08)
- Author : EunBi Lee, Seung Joon Paik
- Publication : National Strategy
- Publisher : The Sejong Institute
- Volume : 29(3)
- Date : August 2023
Abstract: This study examines the sudden deterioration of the Sino-ROK relationship following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January 2016. We argue that the unrealistic expectations the two countries’ top leaders had for one another contributed to the rift. While Seoul expected China to take harsh measures against North Korea to end its nuclear program, Beijing expected South Korea to align with China’s strategic interests and distance itself from its longtime ally, the U.S. Although these expectations had contributed to a period of positive relations between the two countries since 2013, they were at odds with the core security interests of the two countries and therefore were not sustainable. When the two failed to fulfill each other’s expectations after the North Korean nuclear test, policymakers in Seoul and Beijing felt betrayed and responded with punitive measures that significantly harmed their relationship. We conclude with policy recommendations for a more prudent approach to security cooperation based on common interests.